Another factor is the "surge and decline" theory. Lots of people turn out to vote for a president (esp. a war hero such as Grant) and but are not engaged enough with politics to vote in the off-year elections.
In 1874, voter turnout was 7 percent lower than in 1872. If most of those 7 percent were Grant supporters, their decisions not to vote in 1874 might explain why many Republicans lost.
I wish we had good data on how many individuals actually voted for Republicans in 1872 and then voted for Democrats in 1874. Then we could better evaluate how much of the wave was a result of the change in who voted versus a change in how people felt.
Good point. "Surge and decline" no doubt explains Republican losses in 1874 to some extent. But remember, we are talking about a massive rejection of Republican congressional candidates that year -- 91 seats is approximately one-third the size of the House for the 44th Congress. To put it in modern terms, Republicans would have to lose 143 seats this fall. While voter turnout was down, something more than voter disengagement seems to have been at work. Like you, I wish we had better data. But the results speak for themselves.
Another factor is the "surge and decline" theory. Lots of people turn out to vote for a president (esp. a war hero such as Grant) and but are not engaged enough with politics to vote in the off-year elections.
In 1874, voter turnout was 7 percent lower than in 1872. If most of those 7 percent were Grant supporters, their decisions not to vote in 1874 might explain why many Republicans lost.
I wish we had good data on how many individuals actually voted for Republicans in 1872 and then voted for Democrats in 1874. Then we could better evaluate how much of the wave was a result of the change in who voted versus a change in how people felt.
Good point. "Surge and decline" no doubt explains Republican losses in 1874 to some extent. But remember, we are talking about a massive rejection of Republican congressional candidates that year -- 91 seats is approximately one-third the size of the House for the 44th Congress. To put it in modern terms, Republicans would have to lose 143 seats this fall. While voter turnout was down, something more than voter disengagement seems to have been at work. Like you, I wish we had better data. But the results speak for themselves.